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sábado, 24 de setembro de 2016

It is a Migrant Crisis. Not refugees... (part 1)

Yes it is. By 2013, 2014 and middle 2015 the EU asylum applicants were also from nations without war like Russia, Servia, Kosovo and Iran. It is true that most people came from conflicts zones, like Syria, Afeghanistan, Somália, Eritreia and Iraq but more than half are from areas were the populations leaves because they want a better live. If we see close to Eurostat data the problems begin in 2013 not 2015, just in time for Syrian war escalation and the start of the second Libyan Civil War. Of course the problems in Africa and Iraq situation are influencing the migrant number, that was in 2013 and 2014, more than 600 000 and 860 000 individuals, but this conflits started in the beginning of the century or until in the last decades of XX century. The refugees from this countries came from their nations but the boarding site is Lybia and Siria (after the civil war star).  So, Midia and western politicians are wrong, because we have today is also a migrant crisis, not only refugees.  

Fig.1 - Data from Eurostat with EU aplications of asylum in 2013. With Syria, AklAfghanistan and Iraq in a very nasty wars, we see Russia, Kosovo and Iran in the EU asylum list. Russia  is the second with more than 40 000 and Iran is also first than Iraq.

The western countries were always a migrant and refugees destination.  Also a source for hand of labour for example to United States, Europe see for example in the 60s migrations movements in the own continent from Portugal to France. With the end of colonization there was a significant movement between Africa and Europe, when Europeans settlers retourned to ther original nations (or from their ancestors). African natives with european citizenship move also to "metropolis" and the clash was enevitable since majority was not prepared for duplication of the numbers in the cities. The main problem was the number not the race or other items, but of course ideology and racism were present. Religion was not, since most of the individuals were cristians and the islamic were only a few. Tolerance and acculturation made the rest. Politicians were enough competent to give primacy to acomodation and food suply than to minor clashes in between this or that group and police and justice made the rest. Extradite was used if required but with no Human Rights actvistis and Mídia roof present the authorities made their joob, most of the time good. Was simple: who was entitled to stay was most welcome to country and who was not leave to their original nation. Yes, asylium don't work very well for example in cases of persecution and people were kill after send back, but the today solution of give asylium to most everybody was not a option, mainly to social problems but of course the danger of a cultural and religion clash was also considered in that early times.    

Fig.2 - In 2014 the number of refugees increase, especially from war zones. But about 25 000 from Russia, 26 000 from Iran or 32 000 from Eritreia are only examples of asylum applying in UE from nations that technically were not in war. With politicians like Dr.ª Merkle and Dr. Hollande most of the request were accepted because they were invited. After the first attacks most of them were handed out to the Turquish. The "guest era" was ended. To bad to were on the way.

Control of migrants and refugees was the major key in the 80s and 90s to western countries. The balance was the right formula but several events change the world dramatically, with the end of Could War at the top. Without the "two blocks", money and incompetence quickly ruled the world and the "actors" made their movements to rich and powerfull  without care with the results (althoug some warning by scholars quickly derided and called "idiots" and masters of disgrace by the "experts"). EU made ther "border end" (one of major desasters, like also single currency, etc), USA liberalized all and nations like Australia and Japan they were by the middle. The old communist block was dead and Russia with one or two ancient republics had their problems. United Nations were soon outdated with Balkans, foreign affairs was a joke and when terrorrism made ther way in September 11s, was a surprise and i don't now why becouse the 90s were a chaotic decade. Soon a injuried USA attacked Afghanistan but the major problem was when they attack Iraq in 2003 (after Lajes reunion, remember?). Since then to Arab Spring it was a glance. Consequences? does not matter. Oil first, arms sales second and ended with "the nasty dictators" part of them old allies from "cold war times" were the tree major tasks of western world. If Syria was a confirmation, Libya was a surprise with all the World (UN and old soviet block include), to be incompetent in their agreement. After all business is Global.   

Fig.3 - Arab"Sping disaster". If Tunisia, Jordan and Marocco are the major sucess with political change and legislative and democratic reforms most of the rest was a disaster. Libya and Syria soon will be uncontrollable and Europe with the western world face a migrant and refugees crisis. With the greetings from islamic fanatics and imigrations networks.

Surprisingly no one near the politician and military predicted what it came following, what tell us the level of incompetence and collusion near the decision center. Of course there are exeptions, but they were silent (by others or buy themselves to keep the joob), ignored, apart or derided, from the main chain of control to the single blog analyst in Bermudas or Bahamas. After all other interests lifted up (ahh, the money, oil and influence). But there's a surprise: Ukraine. Perhaps was a  collateral damage and Germany and UE only demand another marketplace to sell is products when they give a hope to their people in a full democratic nation with all the support from ocident. Again the real problem was very different what Merkle, Cameron and company expected: The crowds that Kurt Lewin explain in their books in a magnificient way guive to the "local vultures" and extremist groups who only want power made the rest and "guided the masses" in the streets. President Putin started to get nervous and the rest all the world nows. Probably the Russians in asylium apply in UE have some to do with the actual situation.

Fig.4 - Situation in East Ukraine by March 2016. Today the reality is very similar. Of course Ukraine was not a " full democratic state" before the civil war. But today  most of the problems remain and there's a split nation with a war with no end in sight. For the economy and the poppulation of Ukraine is terrible. And there´s no UE or NATO possible in this conditions.
But for now the problem is not Ukraine. All the leaders in area know that they can´t "streach more over the rope", so they only "make some noise" and expect that diplomacy talks.  Parts of Africa, Asia and even south and cental america (Venezuela is a huge problem and maybe will be in future a pole of instability to the region and even to world) are not like that. From Somalia to Lybia, Afghanistan to Syria or Iraq to Turkey, there´s a mass problem with war, terrorism and population mass escape. And i don´t see any solution with today politicians or institucions (the refugges "sell" to Turkey by millions of euros are not a solution but a "joke". See the actual level of turkish democracy or the Armenian genocide if you have some doubts). By the way, the problems should have been avoided especially in the beginning of the century. Jordan and Marocco are good real examples, and to bad that they were not followed by most of the other "today problem nations". The World, Europe and their poppulations would have thanked.

Fig.5-  By 8/2015 the number of asylum applying in UE was about 351 000 people. Again, Kosovo and Servia, who are without any war were in significant number. Eritreia and Pakistan are not secure nations but there's not a war, at maximum some sorce of conflit. Probably the final numbers in 2015 are about 700 000 to 1 000 000 asylium applying in EU, and again with more than 120 000  migrants that want to have a better economic live.

Well the "bad job" is done, and today the only sense to talk about the past is to prevent again in future. But this present problem if whe focus only in present, is not easy to talk and more difficult is to find a sollution in this "mad world". For example, everybody know war in Syria and that the bigger number of refugees is from this nation (it is normal that people who dont want to or can't fight run away from there). But what about Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan? What happen's there? And how people from Eritreia or Pakistan get to Syria? How they came? Who give them support?  Why they are not detected by UAV, satellites or spy planes?  This is about money and organized crime? About islam and an invasion like in the 7th century? Even in Syria we have to ask: How the hell migrants can travel in a country in war and were and how they get on the boat? Is the "Migrant net" a way to finance the war? Who is helping abroad? And why som politicians said "came all to our nation? That are all things that we will talk in the second part of this article, because is important to understand what is happening.

Fig.6 - The situation in 02/2016 at Syria. The nation is divided in 3 major areas controlled by Assad, Isil and the Kurdish. Russia and Iran are the main regular forces behind Syrian government last wins and the Kurds have the support of coalition forces, led by US. But Turkey atacks the Kurds, Isil and other rebel groups, the US atacks Assad Forces, Isil and others, and the Russians atack everybody any less Syrian Forces. But in this caos Migrants can have acess to routes, boats and boarding areas with a few problems. Or the organizations are the forces that fight in Syria ore the casualties are much more higher than in the Mediterranean shipwrecked. 

Fig. 7 - The Migrations routes that finish in the Mediterranean at 2015. Has we see from five points to acess to the see, only two came from Syria. If it is true most of them came from conflit areas, it is a "mistery" how cities like Teeran in Asia or Tunis in Africa are part of this routes. Lybia after Syria is the main door to Mediterranean. Another "funny thing" is that we know the routes and they are long, but nothing is done except in the see. What are the reasons for that?

Fig.8 - Principal Migrations Routes in 2015. Not much change in Europe entrance, except the numbers. Again the information is all there why nobody have done much thing. Worse, the wars in Iraq, Lybia an Syria, make millions of refugees, who of course, they were added to millions of migrants who seek a better live.