Revolution (not) for all

Yes, in 25 April 1974, Portugal had a revolution. The reasons, well for the normal persons was the dictator Marcelo Caetano, the political police PIDE/DGS, the lack of freedom, etc, but the truth was that the military, specially the officers in that time don't want to go to war (Caetano was made new rules for them, so the majority had to go to jungle with the soldiers, when before 1970 was not like that). And 41 years latter how is the country? Well, with a debit at 130% of the PIB, almost 14% without job and rich people and politicians rise from aboove, is not good. Some freedom but far away from paradise. And this article is about what really change in Portugal and what was a fiasco.

At time 1ºst Minister, Dr. Cavaco refused a Pension to Salgueiro Maia, one of April Captains

The 25 April was not a revolution without blood. Four people died when in DGS headquarters when the politic police open fire. But the caos was after the revolution. Angola, Mozambique and Timor soon after were in civil war. In the summer of 1974 more than 9000 portuguese from Angola, 5000 from Mozambique and many more will go after them came to European Portugal. At least 504 will die after the revolution, but in Timor and civil population in the other Ultramarin Territory are not in statistics. There are lots of numbers in fail about the time after revolution and investiagate that period is still a major problem  (http://www.guerracolonial.org/specific/guerra_colonial/uploaded/graficos/estatiscas/mortos.swf). In Guine there as not civil war but some thousand were murdered by who was in power at that time. http://destaques.com.sapo.pt/GuineSoldados.html 

The four dead at DGS/PIDE incident 

In the country another caos. The PREC, nacionalization of industry and agriculture, the political and ideologic movements, the social problems after the independence of african territory (even S. Tomé e Principe and Cabo Verde, land that Portugal discover without anybody, were now independent), and the week economy, make the country a hard place to live. First free election were in 1975, but only in XI Governament at 1987-1991, (a complete legislature, at last) come to end. Even with Portugal in European Community and lots of money enter in the nation, the politicians do nothing, and without supervision the agriculture, industry and fishing don't use the funds to modernization.    

East Timor invasion by Indonésia, after a civil war broke up in the Portuguese territory 

When in the middle of the 90's the money from European Union started to came less, politicians ask for loan to banks from all the world (And portuguese to). In the first years of the XXI century the south Europa and Portugal was in debit 65% of the PIB, and with 2008 crisis, European Central Bank give the order to inject money in local economy, and by 2010, with corruption, bad economic options, European Union fails and the need of the Northen Europe to capitalize their banks, give Troika to Ireland, Greece and Portugal. Troika is no long in the nation but debit is in the 120% https://dissidentex.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/2012-eu-government-debt-projections.jpg (130% for some sources). 

EXPO 98. Today we know that was a finance fiasco for Portugal

So, when people say 41 after revolution that today is much better, let's see some numbers: In 2010, 2,7 Millions of Poor in a population of 10 Million, population without a job 14,4 % in 2014 (13% in 2015), the family budget for a year is about 4800 Euros for food, 4500 in expenses with water and electricity, and only 500 euros for education, taxes rise to 37% in 2015, prices go up in for example in fuel, and imigration was like in the 1970's with the same numbers. But for example the revolution for the politicians since April 1974, to these days (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUvoDFp2w1YKou4kjjKRHn31La_XjD0wXGUFc0PEEHkqKSIY4xNOzMAZMi7z3DYi4z2UUNxoqGPtp9io_ARdomDbdni9_aWz0y_QC5NI6wPY-jJOhUk3dm7auztLx6_7HGYeKoR8WQfb2b/s1600/chulos.jpg) and millionares (more 600) was (and still is) a total blast (http://www.dn.pt/bolsa/interior.aspx?content_id=1602270).

Number of poor people in Portugal by 2010

For the population, April of 1974 was a litle more freedom, best live conditions and no political police. But in 2015, and 41 years after even freedom is not the same that it was after the revolution and in the 80's. Today a boss that dont like what read in your facebook abaout were you work you can lose the job, or if you criticize some politicians on your twiter you can go to court if he go to the police. Is that freedom? What nation is this than you have to count any single euro to had your bills pay? That you pay for all and for example the health cares are a crap? Now you may vote, but in who? The most of portuguese politicians only care with themselves, not the people. http://www.ionline.pt/artigos/portugal/sondagem-ipitagorica-portugueses-acham-politicos-da-ditadura-mais-honestos-os

Individuals without work in Europa. Portugal was in 2014, 14,4%

So, many diferences from Salazar and Caetano season? Only a few, and the country is far from be a paradise.  People don't like when we say that PIDE/DGS was terrible for 10% of the population that was in politic movements, that today the country is only a litle much better that in that times, or that the politicians destroy most of April valuables (http://www.publico.pt/sociedade/noticia/portugueses-acham-que-politicos-sao-os-principais-responsaveis-pela-ma-imagem-do-pais-1174762). More than 400 tons of Gold were sold from Portugal Bank, most of the multi nationals are today in private hands, there´s a group of people that live from social benifis for decays, and tendences are to increase (http://observatorio-das-desigualdades.cies.iscte.pt/content/news/rsi_abril2009_graf1.jpg). And that is the real Portugal in 2015, and it is a petty that many individuals, were ideology, crap experience and bad information about the past, do a incorrect interpretation about what was Portugal in "Estado Novo" and what is now.   

Familiar Budget in Portugal. More than 4500 euros a year in food an only 500 euros ineducation

http://blogmaubere.blogspot.pt/2011_11_18_archive.html

Taxes evolution in Portugal from 1995 to 2015. More 8% in a decade 

http://estadodebarrancos.blogspot.pt/2009/10/os-governos-da-republica-portuguesa.html

Social Budget Evolution since 1996 in Portugal

http://pordata.webnode.pt/news/portugal-emprego-e-mercado-de-trabalho-1/

Portuguese Emigration since 1855 to 2011

http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~a1f.aspx

Minimal salary evolution since 1974. Today is less 78 euros.

http://observador.pt/2015/02/16/um-mapa-que-diz-tudo-europa-morrer-o-mundo-crescer-interativo/

Brazilian Defense: All the truth in a personal perpective (part 1)

Personaly, i don't care what the others think about my defense and geoestrategic ideas. It is a personal opinion and it is based in good sources, not propaganda or policity brochures, and in a knowledge of more then 25 years of investigation.  I investigate what i read and people told me, and ask the reason of things, but of course i'm not the owner of truth, as maybe i'm better than most of individuals ins this topic (not all, it is a fact), who don't no how to investigade, who believe in all that read (in books or Armed Forces Manuals) and in write or video propaganda. Not a problem if others don't do, but when 2 ou 3 questionable persons think that fiction , propaganda and policy, is the truth, making who criticize what is wrong and make racional suggestions how it should, be an alien, that is the thing i need to make some action. Besides, i hate rude people, from Brazil or any other country. 

The 5 fighters of Fx Program. Only Gripen NG, Super Hornet and Rafale were in the finals

The Fx1 Program (http://sistemasdearmas.com.br/fx/fx11intro.html), was made in 2000 to substitute the Mirage III, that were to go out of action in 2005. For me it was a wrong programe because FAB (Força Aerea Basileira ou Brazilian Air Force), had the F5BR who was re-build by company Embraer. So, why not buy more F5E and make them a F5BR? The F5BR was enough for the Latin-American reality and one of the reasons is that is a armament vector for missiles like Derby, and that operates with R99 and P99 AEW jets. Probably that was the reason why the Brazilian Governement cancel the FX1 and talk about other ways to resolve the Mirage III problem.   http://www.ecsbdefesa.com.br/fts/FX.pdf.  

    

Mirage III FAB

But the Brazil instead of the F5BR soluction, and after all the money spent in FX 1, buy to France the Mirage 2000c to replace the Mirage III, and launch the Fx 2. And why i have to agree with that? The first F5BR (then F5EM) was send to FAB in 2005, at least to fly after 2020 (http://www.defesabr.com/Fab/fab_f5br.htm). In 2009 Brazil had buy more 12 F5E from Jordan for be Re-Build by Embraer (http://www.aereo.jor.br/2009/10/29/os-f-5-da-jordania-agora-na-fab/.), and when the 46 original units were finish in 2013 with more of the Jordan Fighters means that in FAB will have in total 58 F5EM, more then enought for the needs of the country and in replace of the 12 Mirage 2000 grounded in the last days of 2013 because they don't make de upgrade of 4 million Euros to made them fly several years. (http://g1.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2013/12/caca-mirage-2000-faz-ultimo-voo-e-e-aposentado-pela-fab.html) .

Mirage 2000c FAB

Instead Brazil lauch the Fx 2 in 2006, what makes no sense (with the upgrade F5m fly at least 2020, and the Mirage 2000c with upgraded fighters past a decade 2013, the logic was that program was to be a reality in 2010  http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projeto_FX-2). The country take 7 years to choose  the JAS 39 Gripen NG (13th December 2013), with the first plane to be delivery to FAB in 2019. Some Gripen C/D will be leasing in 2016 for replace the Mirage.

The only Gripen NG that fly. The Biplace

The program was a mess. In all the years the press 90% from Brazil write pages and pages about the fighters, and the preferences of Brasilia, FAB and President Lula/Dilma. Rafale was announced in 2009 but some hours latter was disbanded like a mistake (http://tribunadonorte.com.br/noticia/brasil-escolhe-rafale-amanha/129022). In July 2013 Reuters said that Brazil will choose Super Hornet, becouse there was a autorization of American Congress to 36 fighters and equipment (http://www.aereo.jor.br/2013/06/05/f-x2-reuters-da-como-certa-a-escolha-do-super-hornet-pelo-brasil/). But in the end of the year the choose was to Gripen NG with half of the planes build in Brazil (or under Brazilian supervisision) and an option of the country to export for other nations.

All the fighters in FX 2 were good. The Gripen choice was fair enough, besides critics, of the range, single engine, equipment and price (the most lower of the 3 finalists). FAB have KC planes and AEW jets, and Gripen is a fighter to operade from little airfields, so that was unfair to Embraer, Saab, Fab, and brazilian government. But others were more truth an serial. For me the problems of choosen the Gripen NG was development, exportation and the naval version. All the others were single to solve, but not this ones. And for some brazilian who think that this option had no mistakes, there is a advice:  Wake up and investigade some stuff. Or the party don't authorised?

Gripen NG Mok-Up in LAAD 2015

 First there's no Gripen NG. The only plane is a modified Gripen D by Saab, that made the first fligh in 2008 and the monoplace version is a mock - up (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen). So the development is maybe a "shoot in the dark" like Lavy fighter. Is truth that Gripen NG came from Gripen C/D, but is a diferent plane, and if the development is good for industry the money spent is much and Brazil was to pay also to Embraer by KC390, and is late ( http://brasileconomico.ig.com.br/negocios/2015-03-06/defesa-prejudica-resultados-da-empresa-afirma-embraer.html). Other problem are electronic that will be made by Saab, Embraer and AEL, and the time that they will spend (for exemple Gripen NG will have a WAD in cockpit made by AEL. The only other fighter that have a WAD is F-35). Modifications in the project made by FAB came to a problem when in March 2015 the cost of the Fx2 program escalated 900 millions USD. http://www.cavok.com.br/blog/gripen-ng-br-ministerio-publico-federal-abriu-inquerito-para-apurar-alta-no-valor-pago-pelos-cacas/

WAD ( Wide Area Display) from Brazilian Gripen NG

Another problem with Gripen NG is Exportation. Since PT is in Brazilia, the country try to sold planes do nations like Venezuela with USA block the transfer of american build components. With UAE probably will happen the same since the planes will really go to Iraq to be fly by Iran Pilots against ISIL (http://www.defesanet.com.br/geopolitica/noticia/18410/Super-Tucanos-%E2%80%93-Ira-atrapalha-venda-aos-Emirados/). So, when Brazil want to sell Gripen NG to Argentina what Inglish and Americans will do? And is not only the Gripen because Kc390 have material from BAE and RR. And when the Brazil politicians are always talk about Falklans be a Argentina  land, it is a risk for Embraer and Saab that in ther sites don't talk one single word about the possibility of sell Gripen NG to Argentina. http://www.aereo.jor.br/2015/04/15/laad-2015-wagner-otimisma-com-pagamentos-a-embraer-e-pessimista-com-o-prosuper/ 

KC390, partners in develpment and 60 planes that Embraer is expecting to sell

It is very strange when Gripen NG is in development, that Saab and Embraer want a naval Gripen. Where is the money? The Saab was trying that Swiss buy the NG plane so that more money from the governement of the country go to project, but the business was stoped by population in a referendum. Today Embraer is a partner and funds from Brazil are entered, but there is a at least 500 or 600 Millions of Reais (Brazilian money) in debit from Brazilia to the company. Another project is more expenses for all, and Saab or Embraer never produce a naval fighter or any plane to be used in a aircraft carrier (NAE S. Paulo is out of service until 2019, and is today 54 years old) with A4 modernize and Trader (this last one modernize by March Aviation from planes in stock to be an Aerial Tanker).  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_aircraft_carrier_S%C3%A3o_Paulo_%28A12%29   

The Naval Gripen NG

So, in conclusion Brazil have to many projects for the defense money they entended to spend. For FAB are JAS 39 Gripen NG, Embraer KC390 and also the Brazilian Space Program (http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programa_espacial_brasileiro), but Embraer have also SISFRON and SGDC (http://www.aereo.jor.br/2015/04/12/embraer-na-laad-2015/), all with money from company and partners but also with significant funds from brazilian taxpayers.It's to much, and the problems are constant delays, lack of money and some tragic acidents like the "Alcântara Acident" in 2003 ( http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acidente_de_Alc%C3%A2ntara). With other projects like Gripen NG and Naval Gripen it is a risk not only to industry but also to other stuff that are in a advance stage of development (like KC390 with money also from Portugal, Argentina and Chez Republic).

SISFRON 

Less money, more problems to operations in FAB and in Brazilian Military Forces. For example Brazilian Air Force (FAB) had a C-130 crashed in Antartic who is in the same place since 27/11/14,(http://cache.aeromagazine.uol.com.br/media/versions/fab2470_001_free_big.jpg) and an 707 in Haiti (http://www.crato.org/chapadadoararipe/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/aviaofab_small.jpg). Also the F5 brought from Jordan for modernization are stoped. The Gripen C/D only will go to FAB in 2016 and Gripen NG and KC390 are in an advance stage but they need certifications and it is not real that they are alredy in service (no one can say that the next stage in development will be short and a sucess, only that probably will). Today press from Spain say that Brazil only will rent Pantsir missiles from Russia for olimpic games.

But the reality of the Navy is much much worse that in FAB. The bad planifications of making projects of millions USD  on top of another millionaire construtions like NAE S. PAULO (modernization), Prosub and Prosuper, with budget cuts are making the fleet in March only with five ships in active. If nothing will be done in 2025 the Navy will end. But that is a mater for part 2 of this blog ( http://www.naval.com.br/blog/2008/10/10/a-degradacao-do-poder-naval-brasileiro/).

Tikuna sub made in 2005. In 2008 Prosub was launch.



http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinha_do_Brasil

Cessna A37 Dragonfly. A World Attack Plane in Video and information.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/a-37.htm

http://fas.org/irp/program/collect/oa-37.htm

http://www.primeportal.net/hangar/eduardo_fadul/a-37b_dragonfly/

http://www.aviationmuseum.com.au/aircraft_colection/dragonfly/

http://www.combataircraft.com/en/Military-Aircraft/Cessna/A-37-Dragonfly/

http://www.a-37.org/

http://www.warbirdalley.com/a37.htm

http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/the-a-37-dragonfly-in-vietnam/

http://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=326

http://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=148

http://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/legends-of-vietnam-super-tweet-8974282/?no-ist

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cessna_A-37_Dragonfly

http://www.airplane-pictures.net/type.php?p=266

Falklands War. 33 years military speaking.

For me, Britan has all the right to Falklands, like Portugal was to Goa, Damão e Diu, and also Cabo Verde e S.Tome e Principe. But the proposed article is about what change after the war with Argentina, in the islands and surrounded area. And it change a lot, especially for the military and of course for Argentines. 

In 1982 the UK had 70 troops and 20 security forces (more 120 islands defende force man), up une polar patrol ship in the islands (HMS Endurance). Today 1200 troops, 20 security forces, 3 ships (includes one frigate and one patrol ship), rapier AA missiles, 4 Typhoon fighters, 1 C-130 and one Vc-10 for re-fueling (and 202 man from island defende force). So, it's clear that one pacefull area before the war is today, becouse of the 1982 invasion, militarised not only in the islands but also in all South Atlantic. Major error Argentina.  

War Cemetery in Falkland

In total 907 people were kill. Argentina lost 649 men and Britan 255. The rest were civilians. In 2011 were 113 uncleared minefield, and are still today places like Port William on East Falkland that is an example of the danger of the mines in the islands. No casualties but six military personal were injuried in 1982 and 1983. The war left on the islands abou 5 000 anti-tank mines and 20 000 anti-personnel. Under the Mine Ban Treaty all them have to be clean by the end of 2019.

The wrecks of the war area everywere. More from Argentina in land, and in the sea most of them are british. In the islands, remains of A4, Pucára, T-34, Uh-1, AML amoured car, etc, and also Harrier and others british stuff, are only some exmples what today we can see in the fields. Falkland Museum have one section about the war and some pieces are preserved in there and in Heritage Museum and Historic Dockyard Museum also in Falklands. http://www.falklands-museum.com/index.php/collections/1982-the-falklands-war  

Other material are display in Imperial War Museum, Marines Museum and Army Museum, in the UK. 

Marino Velasco´s crashed A4 in the Falklands

After the war the Falklands Islands Defence Force (FIDF) was reformed in 1983 (on first April of 1982 of 120 only 23 man turned out). Today are a force with 202 man (2 are permanent the rest are in reserve), with 400 000 Pounds annual budget, from Falklands Islands Governement.

The man meet once a week for training, with british soldiers, Royal Navy and do also civil operations like rescue and fisheries protection. Equipment are from Land Rover to Grenade Launchers, and includes also L7 machine guns and Styer AUG Rifles.    

Wreck of an Argentina Pucara

Military presence was heavily invested by the UK after 1982. Mount Pleasant, the new RAF Airfield, 27 miles from Stanley is the major prove of that, fuly operacional since 1986, and with is own port facility call Mare Harbour. After the war planes like the F4 and the Tornado made the defence of the island, but today the fighter are the four Eurofighter Typhoon. Sar was been made by Sea King helicopters but the AAR Corps is what make the missions today with AW189 type. 

Remains of a T-34 aircraft from Argentina Navy

Royal Navy was a Frigate Type 23 or a Destroyer Type 45, a Patrol (permanently until 2018), an Ice Patrol Ship and a RFA Tanker near the islands. Other units like Trafalgar and Astute class nuclear submarines are deployed in area in classified deployments, and they carry torpedos and Tomahawk missiles.

   

Army maintains a garrison on the island in Mount Pleasant, about 1200 personnel made up a infantry company, an engineer squadron, a signals unit, a logistic group and supporting services. There also a Rapier Missile battery deployed. The UK maintains a Joint Rapid Reaction Force with the 3 services, that in 48/72 hours could be deployed to the islands in the event of receiving intelligence of a specific threath to the territory.   

It is clear that the Argentina invasion of the Falklands was a major fiasco for the country. The British significant presence in South Atlantic was increase and diplomatic solution is today denied by UK becouse of the invasion. The Argentina Military Junta was disband and military argentina forces are a shadow of what were in 1982, with the crisis reduce de navy and the airforce to minimal, made by old equipment like Hercules class destroyers (one sink alone in port) or A4 fighters. Today they are no match to British Forces, also with less ships, man and fighters.

With major oil fields discover on the sea in Falklands Maritime Zone and President Cristina election in Argentina, the pression to the UK in diplomacy and propaganda by the south american country is much more intense that since the 90s. But referendo in 2013 at Falklands give 99,8% of the people voted in favour of remaining a british territory ouverseas, economically self - sufficient, and that trust in more than 180 years of British administration. And that is democracy, not "colonial tradition" like Daniel Filmus said and other members of Cristina's executive repeat to exaustion. They made a mistake, now they had to live with it. That's life.        

Armada Argentina today capital ships

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_Falkland_Islands

Remains of an Argentina Army UH1 helicopter

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands_Defence_Force

Remains of an Harrier in Goose Green

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/9331911/Inside-the-1980s-time-capsule-that-is-the-Falklands-War-frigate-HMS-Plymouth.html

Aml armoured car

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands

Mount Pleasant Base

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/falklands-changed-invasion-one-thing-1798571

Mount Pleasant land facilities

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9169829/The-Falkland-Islands-30-years-after-the-war-with-Argentina.html

Typhoon Fighter

http://www.falklandswar.org.uk/

FIDF operacional with a Styer Rifle and a Rover in back

http://militaryhistory.about.com/od/battleswars1900s/p/falklands.htm

Type 23 Frigate

http://www.falklandislands.com/product.php/39/58/museums

HMS Clyde Patrol Boat in Falklands


http://www.yaodynasty.com/Contents/SA/SA-Falkland.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath_of_the_Falklands_War

A C130 at Mount Pleasent base

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War